Is Jonas Vingegaard ready to beat Tadej Pogačar and go from Giro to hero at the Tour de France?
Jonas Vingegaard's Giro-Tour double mission is an intriguing prospect, and the Danish rider is certainly in the right place to make it happen. After a dominant performance at the Giro d'Italia, Vingegaard is now turning his attention to the Tour de France, with the goal of becoming just the ninth man to win both races in the same year. But can he beat his eternal rival, Tadej Pogačar, and claim the yellow jersey?
Vingegaard's Giro victory was a testament to his strength and consistency. He won five of the six mountain stages and dominated the race with apparent ease, becoming only the eighth man in history to win all three of cycling's Grand Tours. Now, he's targeting even more history, seeking to become the ninth man to win the Giro and the Tour in the same year.
The 29-year-old's confidence is high, and he believes he's in very good shape for the Tour. This belief is shared by his coach, Mathieu Heijboer, who expects a closer battle between Vingegaard and Pogačar than the one they had last year. In 2025, Pogačar won four stages and beat Vingegaard by 4:24, but this time, Heijboer is confident that the two will have a proper fight again.
However, there are some concerns about Vingegaard's shape for the Tour. The conventional wisdom is that riding the Giro fatigues a GC rider before the Tour, and that they enter the second Grand Tour in worse condition than if they had spent May training at altitude and warmed up for the Tour with a week-long stage race in June. History supports this case, with it taking 26 years for a rider to last claim the Giro-Tour double.
But there are two reasons why Vingegaard is confident that he's not worried about being in weaker shape come the Tour. Firstly, his performances in the Vuelta a España after the Tour have been better, and he won last year's Spanish race. Secondly, he didn't have a serious rival at the Giro, and many analysts believe he was only riding at 90% of his full capacity.
Vingegaard's recovery from a serious accident two springs ago is also a factor. He crashed hard at the Itzulia Basque Country, breaking his sternum, several ribs, and a collarbone, and puncturing both of his lungs. He made a remarkable recovery to finish second at the Tour, and then won the Vuelta. However, his former coach, Tim Heemskerk, believes that Vingegaard won't fully recover until the 2026 season.
Despite these concerns, Vingegaard is confident that he's in better shape now than he was last year. He's motivated and eager to go for it in July, but he needs to take a proper rest and recovery first. Heijboer agrees, and believes that Vingegaard is in a better position now than he was last year.
The Tour begins with a 19km team time trial in Barcelona, and then there's a 26km individual time trial on stage 16. Vingegaard's time-trialling performances have been inconsistent, and he's at a disadvantage compared to Pogačar and other riders like João Almeida. However, the Giro TT wasn't a good course for him, and he was affected by the weather in the first week.
The bonus seconds could play a crucial role in determining the eventual winner of the race. Vingegaard has averaged 29 bonus seconds, 21 fewer than Pogačar. If this year's Tour is to be as closely fought as many hope, then bonus seconds could be a key factor.
In conclusion, Jonas Vingegaard is in a strong position to beat Tadej Pogačar and win the Tour de France. His Giro victory was a testament to his strength and consistency, and he's confident that he's in better shape now than he was last year. However, there are some concerns about his time-trialling performances and the bonus seconds, but he's motivated and eager to go for it in July. The question remains: can he beat Pogačar and claim the yellow jersey?
