The 2026 college football season promises an intriguing dynamic as FCS teams continue to challenge their FBS counterparts. While the number of FCS victories over FBS teams has been on a slight decline, there are still several compelling matchups that could see FCS programs triumph. Here's a deep dive into some of the most likely FCS-over-FBS wins in 2026, complete with expert analysis and commentary.
1. Montana State at Nevada
In a rare occurrence, FCS teams being favored against FBS opponents is a fascinating prospect. Montana State, fresh off an FCS championship, returns a strong roster with QB Justin Lamson, RB Adam Jones, and WR Taco Dowler. Their offensive prowess and defensive depth make them a formidable force. Nevada, on the other hand, struggled last season with a 3-9 record and a close win over a non-FCS playoff team. The Bobcats' experience and talent could be the difference in this highly anticipated matchup.
Commentary: This game stands out as a potential upset, especially given Nevada's recent struggles. Montana State's offensive firepower and defensive consistency make them a strong favorite. The Bobcats' ability to maintain their form throughout the season will be crucial, as they aim to replicate their championship success against a FBS opponent.
2. Tarleton State at Bowling Green
Tarleton State's remarkable upset of FBS Army last season showcased their potential. With an explosive offense led by RB Tylan Hines and transfer B.J. Fleming, the Texans are a force to be reckoned with. However, they must find a new starting quarterback, which could be a challenge. Bowling Green, ranked No. 125 in Bill Connelly's SP+ preseason rankings, finished 4-8 last year. This game presents an opportunity for Tarleton to continue their ascent in the FCS rankings.
Analysis: Tarleton's offensive prowess and Bowling Green's struggles make this a favorable matchup for the FCS team. The Texans' ability to adapt without a starting quarterback will be a key factor. Bowling Green's defensive weaknesses could be exploited, especially if Tarleton's offense continues to shine.
3. Illinois State at NIU
Illinois State's historic run to the FCS title game last season was impressive. They return a solid nucleus, including standout players like Victor Dawson and Tye Niekamp. The Redbirds' offensive line and defensive depth are strengths. NIU, ranked No. 125 in SP+ preseason rankings, finished 3-9 in 2025. This game could be a test of Illinois State's ability to maintain their momentum against a struggling FBS opponent.
Opinion: Illinois State's experience and talent make them a strong contender. NIU's poor performance last season suggests they may struggle to contain the Redbirds' offense. If Illinois State can find a stable quarterback, this game could be a clear-cut victory for the FCS team.
4. Idaho State at Utah State
Idaho State's close calls against strong Mountain West teams last season indicate they are due for an FBS win. With QB Jordan Cooke, RB Dason Brooks, and WR Chedon James returning, the Bengals have an explosive offense. Utah State, ranked No. 91 in SP+ preseason rankings, finished 6-7 in 2025. This game presents an opportunity for Idaho State to make a statement and boost their FCS reputation.
Reflection: Idaho State's offensive firepower and Utah State's recent struggles make this a potential upset. The Bengals' ability to maintain their form and capitalize on Utah State's weaknesses will be crucial. This game could be a turning point for Idaho State's program.
5. Sacred Heart at UMass
Sacred Heart, moving into the CAA, returns key players like QB Jack Snyder and RB Mitchell Summers. UMass, ranked No. 137 in SP+ preseason rankings, has struggled since joining the FBS in 2013. The Minutemen's poor performance last season, including a loss to Bryant, suggests they may be vulnerable. Sacred Heart's improved roster and UMass' struggles make this a potential FCS victory.
Speculation: Sacred Heart's improved roster and UMass' recent struggles could lead to an upset. The Pioneers' ability to execute and capitalize on UMass' weaknesses will be a key factor. This game could be a turning point for Sacred Heart's program.
These matchups highlight the growing competitiveness between FCS and FBS teams. While the number of FCS victories may be declining, there are still opportunities for FCS programs to make a statement and challenge the FBS elite. The 2026 season promises exciting upsets and showcases the growing talent within the FCS ranks.
